Copenhagen roadblocks unresolved at Bonn climate talks

The disappointing outcome in Copenhagen last year left many people wondering what progress, if any, would be made in global climate change negotiations in 2010. The first concrete indication came at the Bonn climate talks from 31 May to 11 June. The talks revealed that wide differences remain in the search for a comprehensive UN climate deal.

Optimism characterised the talks early on. However, by the end it was clear that many of the issues that have hindered earlier negotiations, including how much to cut emissions, how to finance these cuts and how to verify them, remain unresolved.

Much of the disagreement occurred between rich and poor countries. For example, poor countries argued that rich countries need to be more ambitious in their planned emissions cuts, which are well short of the 25-40% reductions from 1990 levels by 2020 recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Rich countries countered that cutting global emissions by 50% or more by 2050 will require the participation of poor countries, given that this is where most of the growth in future emissions is expected to come from.

However, disagreements also split rich and poor countries depending on national interests. For example, a proposal by the Alliance of Small Island States to review options for limiting global average temperature rises to below 1.5°C was blocked by some oil-exporting countries, including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait and Qatar. The draft negotiating text for a new climate treaty that was produced at the end of the talks was then criticised by rich and poor nations alike. 

Given this challenging background, what are the prospects for 2010? While the draft negotiating text was criticised, people at least seem willing to take it as the basis for future work, according to Yvo De Boer, who stepped down as the head of the UN’s climate change secretariat at the start of July. Optimists argue that a comprehensive deal is still possible in Mexico where the next UN climate summit will be hosted from 29 November to 10 December. However, a WWF poll at the recent Bonn talks suggests most people think a comprehensive deal is unlikely to be concluded by then.

A more useful way forward may be to achieve tangible successes this year that build trust and confidence that long standing issues can be overcome. For example, ensuring that the $10 billion in annual climate funding pledged in Copenhagen is delivered and making further progress on measures to reduce deforestation would build hope that progress on other fronts is possible. It would also provide time to advance domestic measures, in particular in the United States, which could provide new impetus to a comprehensive climate deal in 2011.